HPS Weekly National Seasonal Respiratory Report - week ending 2 February 2020

Overall assessment:

• Influenza activity is showing signs of decreasing with almost all indicators suggesting falling activity. There remains evidence of circulation of influenza within the community and closed settings. A CMO letter was issued in week 49 advising that GPs may prescribe antivirals.
• A Scottish addendum to the Public Health England guidance on use of antiviral agents for the treatment and prophylaxis of seasonal influenza has been published on the HPS website.

In week 5:

• The rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) was at Baseline activity level (11.4 per 100,000).
• The proportion of NHS24 respiratory calls was at Baseline activity level (16.5%).
• The swab positivity of influenza in primary care was at Baseline activity level (20.0%, 4/20).
• The swab positivity of influenza in secondary care was at Low activity level (11.5%, 97/843).
• The incidence rate of influenza in secondary care was at Baseline activity level (1.9 per 100,000 population).
• The number of new acute respiratory illness outbreaks with onset in week 5 was at Low activity level (n=2).
• The number of new SARI cases admitted to ICU during week 5 was at Baseline activity level (n=0).
• There was 1 new SARI death reported. The SARI case-fatality rate (CFR) reported since week 40 2019 was 15.9% (11/69) and remains below expected seasonal levels (range 22.9% - 35.6%).
• The all-cause mortality excess was at Baseline activity level in week 3.