Influenza activity is showing signs of stabilising with some indicators suggesting falling activity. There is evidence of circulation of influenza within the community and closed settings. This prompted the issue of a CMO letter in week 49 advising that GPs may prescribe antivirals.
Please note that due to the reduced number of working days in week 1, data in this report must be interpreted with caution.
A Scottish addendum to the Public Health England guidance on use of antiviral agents for the treatment and prophylaxis of seasonal influenza has been published on the HPS website.
In week 1:
The rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) was at Baseline activity level (12.1 per 100,000).
The proportion of NHS24 respiratory calls was at Low activity level (20.7%).
The swab positivity of influenza in primary care was at Baseline activity level (12.5%, 2/16).
The swab positivity of influenza in secondary care was at Moderate activity level (33.6%, 341/1015).
The incidence rate of influenza in secondary care was at Moderate activity level (8.0 per 100,000 population).
The number of new acute respiratory illness outbreaks with onset in week 1 was at Low activity level (n=2).
The number of new SARI cases admitted to ICU during week 1 was at Low activity level (n=5).
There were 3 new SARI deaths reported. The SARI case-fatality rate (CFR) reported since week 40 2019 was 18.6% (8/43) and remains below expected seasonal levels (range 22.9% - 35.6%).
The all-cause mortality excess was at Low activity level in week 51.
The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) season started in week 41, peaked in week 48 (Extraordinary activity level) and is currently on a decreasing trend. The large majority of RSV detections thus far have been in those aged under 5 years. The typical RSV season lasts approximately 12 weeks and usually peaks between week 49 and week 52.